{
  "date": "2026-11-11",
  "generated_at": "2026-11-11T00:16:40Z",
  "price_usd": 73661.0,
  "price_date": "2026-11-10",
  "top_signal": 0.0,
  "signal_level": "none",
  "heat_score": 28.0,
  "composite_score": 28.0,
  "timing_score": 0.0,
  "hot_categories": 0,
  "zone": "cold",
  "stale": false,
  "timing": {
    "score": 0.0,
    "score_halving": 0.0,
    "score_low": 0.0,
    "days_since_halving": 935,
    "days_since_low": 134,
    "last_halving": "2024-04-20",
    "next_halving": "2028-04-15",
    "next_halving_estimated": true,
    "cycle_low_date": "2026-06-30",
    "cycle_low_price": 58525.08,
    "window_halving": "2028-04-15",
    "expected_window_by_halving": {
      "center": "2029-10-02",
      "full_from": "2029-08-03",
      "full_to": "2029-12-01",
      "from": "2028-12-06",
      "to": "2030-07-29"
    },
    "expected_window_by_low": {
      "center": "2029-05-28",
      "full_from": "2029-03-29",
      "full_to": "2029-07-27",
      "from": "2028-08-01",
      "to": "2030-03-24"
    },
    "center_halving_days": 535,
    "center_low_days": 1063,
    "flat_days": 60,
    "ramp_days": 240,
    "past_tops_halving_days": {
      "2013-12-04": 371,
      "2017-12-16": 525,
      "2021-11-08": 546,
      "2025-10-06": 534
    },
    "past_tops_low_days": {
      "2013-12-04": 747,
      "2017-12-16": 1067,
      "2021-11-08": 1059,
      "2025-10-06": 1062
    }
  },
  "bottom_signal": 29.8,
  "bottom_level": "none",
  "cold_score": 33.2,
  "bottom_timing_score": 96.7,
  "bottom": {
    "signal": 29.8,
    "level": "none",
    "cold_score": 33.2,
    "groups": {
      "估值": {
        "score": 0.0,
        "weight": 0.5
      },
      "礦工": {
        "score": 47.6,
        "weight": 0.3
      },
      "價格結構": {
        "score": 94.7,
        "weight": 0.2
      }
    },
    "indicators": {
      "cold_mvrv": {
        "label": "MVRV（價格 ÷ 實現價格）",
        "group": "估值",
        "unit": "x",
        "description": "低於 1 代表價格跌破市場平均持幣成本。過去三次底部為 0.56、0.69、0.75。",
        "value": 1.3938,
        "score": 0.0,
        "method": "cycle_bottom",
        "expected_bottom": 0.8889,
        "neutral": 1.334,
        "past_bottoms": {
          "2015-01-14": 0.5635797199999999,
          "2018-12-15": 0.69048064,
          "2022-11-09": 0.7539586961789999
        }
      },
      "cold_nupl": {
        "label": "NUPL",
        "group": "估值",
        "unit": "",
        "description": "淨未實現損益。過去三次底部都轉為負值（整體市場帳面虧損）。",
        "value": 0.2825,
        "score": 0.0,
        "method": "cycle_bottom",
        "expected_bottom": -0.0683,
        "neutral": 0.2214,
        "past_bottoms": {
          "2015-01-14": -0.7743718670359536,
          "2018-12-15": -0.44826652923969035,
          "2022-11-09": -0.32633260292363087
        }
      },
      "cold_puell": {
        "label": "Puell Multiple",
        "group": "礦工",
        "unit": "",
        "description": "礦工收入相對一年均值。過去三次底部為 0.31、0.39、0.48。2024 減半後礦工收入結構性下降，可能使此項偏冷。",
        "value": 0.7624,
        "score": 58.5,
        "method": "cycle_bottom",
        "expected_bottom": 0.5939,
        "neutral": 1.0,
        "past_bottoms": {
          "2015-01-14": 0.3123250950141824,
          "2018-12-15": 0.38937597321327183,
          "2022-11-09": 0.47862604050080193
        }
      },
      "cold_ribbon": {
        "label": "Hash Ribbons（近 90 日最深）",
        "group": "礦工",
        "unit": "%",
        "description": "算力 30 日均跌破 60 日均代表礦工關機投降，常出現在底部前後；但減半後與政策事件也會發生，僅作輔助。",
        "value": -1.8362,
        "score": 36.7,
        "method": "ribbon",
        "full_at": -5.0
      },
      "cold_ahr999": {
        "label": "AHR999",
        "group": "價格結構",
        "unit": "",
        "description": "價格相對 200 日幾何平均與長期指數成長曲線的位置。過去三次底部為 0.23、0.27、0.26；慣用 1.2 為定投線（中性）。",
        "value": 0.4055,
        "score": 86.9,
        "method": "cycle_bottom",
        "expected_bottom": 0.286,
        "neutral": 1.2,
        "past_bottoms": {
          "2015-01-14": 0.22544705078982882,
          "2018-12-15": 0.27212766338182914,
          "2022-11-09": 0.25710334600285967
        }
      },
      "cold_powerlaw": {
        "label": "Power Law（價格 ÷ 冪律趨勢價）",
        "group": "價格結構",
        "unit": "x",
        "description": "比特幣長期價格沿冪律曲線成長（對數價格與對數天數近似直線）；趨勢線每天只用當天以前的資料擬合。1.0 倍＝趨勢價（中性）；過去三次底部為 0.24、0.48、0.36 倍。與 AHR999 高度相關，同組平均、不重複計分。只用於底部：頂部倍數逐輪快速下降（8.5→6.6→2.3→1.1），且 2021-04、2024-03 中段高點不低於真頂部。",
        "value": 0.506,
        "score": 102.5,
        "method": "cycle_bottom",
        "expected_bottom": 0.5181,
        "neutral": 1.0,
        "past_bottoms": {
          "2015-01-14": 0.24087807889641405,
          "2018-12-15": 0.48243284320091806,
          "2022-11-09": 0.35963496697829206
        }
      }
    },
    "references": {
      "ref_delta": {
        "label": "Delta Price 倍數（價格 ÷ Delta Price）",
        "unit": "x",
        "scored": false,
        "value": 2.3359,
        "delta_price": 32176.0,
        "past_bottoms": {
          "2015-01-14": 1.085,
          "2018-12-15": 1.009,
          "2022-11-09": 1.238
        },
        "description": "Delta Price =（實現市值 − 平均市值）÷ 流通量。過去三次週期底部價格都落在 Delta Price 的 1.0–1.25 倍，假底部都在 1.4 倍以上。2026-10 驗證後只作參考、不計入冷度（與 MVRV 高度相關，加入後分辨力略降）。"
      }
    },
    "timing": {
      "score": 96.7,
      "score_top": 100.0,
      "score_halving": 93.5,
      "days_since_top": 401,
      "days_since_halving": 935,
      "last_top": "2025-10-06",
      "last_halving": "2024-04-20",
      "window_by_top": {
        "center": "2026-10-20",
        "full_from": "2026-08-21",
        "full_to": "2026-12-19",
        "from": "2025-12-24",
        "to": "2027-08-16"
      },
      "window_by_halving": {
        "center": "2026-08-27",
        "full_from": "2026-06-28",
        "full_to": "2026-10-26",
        "from": "2025-10-31",
        "to": "2027-06-23"
      },
      "center_top_days": 379,
      "center_halving_days": 859,
      "flat_days": 60,
      "ramp_days": 240,
      "past_bottoms_top_days": {
        "2015-01-14": 406,
        "2018-12-15": 364,
        "2022-11-09": 366
      },
      "past_bottoms_halving_days": {
        "2015-01-14": 777,
        "2018-12-15": 889,
        "2022-11-09": 912
      }
    },
    "cycle_test": {
      "status": "testing",
      "decisive_date": "2026-12-19",
      "verdict": "驗證中：若到 2026-12-19 為止都沒有跌破候選低點 $58,525（2026-06-30），支持「本輪低點即週期底部、ETF 時代熊市變淺」；一旦跌破即判定假說不成立。",
      "hypothesis": {
        "cycle_top": "2025-10-06",
        "hypothesis_created_at": "2026-10-06",
        "candidate_low_date": "2026-06-30",
        "candidate_low_price": 58525.08,
        "deadline": "2026-12-19"
      },
      "broken_date": null,
      "finalized_date": null,
      "cycle_top_price": 124824.45,
      "current_low": {
        "date": "2026-06-30",
        "price": 58525.08,
        "days_since_top": 267,
        "drawdown_pct": -53.1,
        "mvrv": 1.103,
        "nupl": 0.093,
        "bottom_signal_max_cycle": 58.7,
        "bottom_signal_max_date": "2026-07-02",
        "bottom_signal_first_zone": "2026-06-09",
        "days_bottom_zone": 28
      },
      "past_bottoms": [
        {
          "date": "2015-01-14",
          "price": 175.64,
          "days_since_top": 406,
          "drawdown_pct": -84.5,
          "mvrv": 0.564,
          "nupl": -0.774,
          "bottom_signal_max_cycle": 73.5,
          "days_bottom_zone": 71
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12-15",
          "price": 3185.07,
          "days_since_top": 364,
          "drawdown_pct": -83.8,
          "mvrv": 0.69,
          "nupl": -0.448,
          "bottom_signal_max_cycle": 92.6,
          "days_bottom_zone": 129
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11-09",
          "price": 15758.29,
          "days_since_top": 366,
          "drawdown_pct": -76.7,
          "mvrv": 0.754,
          "nupl": -0.326,
          "bottom_signal_max_cycle": 84.2,
          "days_bottom_zone": 213
        }
      ],
      "days_mvrv_below_1_this_cycle": 0
    },
    "note": "參數只依 2015、2018、2022 底部與中段假底部決定，本輪為樣本外檢驗。"
  },
  "midterm": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-10",
    "price": 73661.0,
    "regime": "bull_trend",
    "above_200d": true,
    "above_20w": true,
    "ma50": 81375,
    "ma200": 73132,
    "ma20w": 73405,
    "dist_ma50": -0.0948,
    "dist_ma200": 0.0072,
    "dist_ma20w": 0.0035,
    "supertrend_weekly": {
      "direction": "up",
      "line": 66862,
      "since": "2026-09-06",
      "week": "2026-11-08",
      "distance": 0.1017
    },
    "dip": {
      "hits": 1,
      "min_hits": 3,
      "active": false,
      "applicable": true,
      "conditions": [
        {
          "key": "rsi_d",
          "threshold": "< 35",
          "value": 33.5637,
          "met": true
        },
        {
          "key": "ma50",
          "threshold": "< -10%",
          "value": -0.0948,
          "met": false
        },
        {
          "key": "roi30",
          "threshold": "< -15%",
          "value": -0.1193,
          "met": false
        },
        {
          "key": "fg",
          "threshold": "< 25",
          "value": 31.5714,
          "met": false
        },
        {
          "key": "funding",
          "threshold": "<= 0",
          "value": 6.6558,
          "met": false
        }
      ],
      "history": {
        "events": 11,
        "since": "2014",
        "median_90d": 0.1384,
        "up_90d": 0.7273,
        "base_median_90d": 0.1238,
        "recent": [
          "2021-05-15",
          "2021-12-04",
          "2024-05-01",
          "2025-02-26"
        ],
        "median_further_drop_30d": -0.0575
      }
    },
    "hot": {
      "hits": 0,
      "min_hits": 3,
      "active": false,
      "applicable": true,
      "conditions": [
        {
          "key": "rsi_d",
          "threshold": "> 75",
          "value": 33.5637,
          "met": false
        },
        {
          "key": "ma50",
          "threshold": "> +25%",
          "value": -0.0948,
          "met": false
        },
        {
          "key": "roi30",
          "threshold": "> +40%",
          "value": -0.1193,
          "met": false
        },
        {
          "key": "fg",
          "threshold": "> 80",
          "value": 31.5714,
          "met": false
        },
        {
          "key": "funding",
          "threshold": "> p90 (1y)",
          "value": 6.6558,
          "met": false
        }
      ],
      "history": {
        "events": 16,
        "since": "2014",
        "median_90d": 0.0452,
        "up_90d": 0.625,
        "base_median_90d": 0.1238,
        "recent": [
          "2021-10-20",
          "2023-01-20",
          "2024-02-28",
          "2024-11-11"
        ],
        "drop15_45d": 0.375,
        "base_drop15_45d": 0.3249
      }
    }
  },
  "strategy": {
    "rules": {
      "arm_top_signal": 50,
      "arm_top_timing": 50,
      "buy_bottom_signal": 50,
      "fee": 0.001,
      "supertrend": "weekly ATR 10 x 3"
    },
    "as_of": "2026-11-10",
    "state": "holding",
    "armed": false,
    "since": "2026-06-09",
    "since_price": 61640.46,
    "now": {
      "top_signal": 0.0,
      "top_timing": 0.0,
      "bottom_signal": 29.8,
      "supertrend": "up"
    },
    "backtest": {
      "start": "2014",
      "strategy": 735.87,
      "hold": 97.9,
      "ratio": 7.52,
      "cagr": 0.671,
      "cagr_hold": 0.4284,
      "max_dd": -0.7432,
      "max_dd_hold": -0.8378,
      "time_in": 0.7262
    },
    "by_start": [
      {
        "start": "2014",
        "strategy": 735.87,
        "hold": 97.9,
        "ratio": 7.52,
        "cagr": 0.671,
        "cagr_hold": 0.4284,
        "max_dd": -0.7432,
        "max_dd_hold": -0.8378,
        "time_in": 0.7262
      },
      {
        "start": "2016",
        "strategy": 552.12,
        "hold": 169.46,
        "ratio": 3.26,
        "cagr": 0.7887,
        "cagr_hold": 0.6043,
        "max_dd": -0.7432,
        "max_dd_hold": -0.8378,
        "time_in": 0.8011
      },
      {
        "start": "2018",
        "strategy": 11.26,
        "hold": 5.47,
        "ratio": 2.06,
        "cagr": 0.3144,
        "cagr_hold": 0.2115,
        "max_dd": -0.8138,
        "max_dd_hold": -0.8138,
        "time_in": 0.8452
      },
      {
        "start": "2020",
        "strategy": 21.14,
        "hold": 10.27,
        "ratio": 2.06,
        "cagr": 0.5603,
        "cagr_hold": 0.4045,
        "max_dd": -0.6566,
        "max_dd_hold": -0.7667,
        "time_in": 0.8001
      },
      {
        "start": "2022",
        "strategy": 2.3,
        "hold": 1.55,
        "ratio": 1.49,
        "cagr": 0.1876,
        "cagr_hold": 0.0943,
        "max_dd": -0.6687,
        "max_dd_hold": -0.6687,
        "time_in": 0.8851
      }
    ],
    "trades": [
      {
        "date": "2014-03-03",
        "action": "sell",
        "why": "st_down",
        "price": 676.51,
        "next_price_change": -0.5674
      },
      {
        "date": "2015-07-13",
        "action": "buy",
        "why": "st_up",
        "price": 292.65,
        "next_price_change": 22.4052
      },
      {
        "date": "2018-02-05",
        "action": "sell",
        "why": "st_down",
        "price": 6849.54,
        "next_price_change": -0.3697
      },
      {
        "date": "2018-11-20",
        "action": "buy",
        "why": "bsig",
        "price": 4317.53,
        "next_price_change": 7.9473
      },
      {
        "date": "2021-05-24",
        "action": "sell",
        "why": "st_down",
        "price": 38630.41,
        "next_price_change": 0.483
      },
      {
        "date": "2021-10-11",
        "action": "buy",
        "why": "st_up",
        "price": 57289.19,
        "next_price_change": -0.2701
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-01-10",
        "action": "sell",
        "why": "st_down",
        "price": 41816.95,
        "next_price_change": -0.5143
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-06-16",
        "action": "buy",
        "why": "bsig",
        "price": 20310.18,
        "next_price_change": 3.5254
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-17",
        "action": "sell",
        "why": "st_down",
        "price": 91911.47,
        "next_price_change": -0.3293
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-09",
        "action": "buy",
        "why": "bsig",
        "price": 61640.46,
        "next_price_change": null
      }
    ],
    "alerts": [
      {
        "from": "2013-10-22",
        "to": "2014-03-03",
        "why": "sig"
      },
      {
        "from": "2016-10-25",
        "to": "2018-02-05",
        "why": "tim"
      },
      {
        "from": "2021-01-07",
        "to": "2021-05-24",
        "why": "tim"
      },
      {
        "from": "2021-10-12",
        "to": "2022-01-10",
        "why": "tim"
      },
      {
        "from": "2025-01-21",
        "to": "2025-11-17",
        "why": "tim"
      }
    ],
    "chart_runs": {
      "2018": {
        "sell": [
          "2021-05-24",
          "2022-01-10",
          "2025-11-17"
        ],
        "buy": [
          "2021-10-11",
          "2022-06-16",
          "2026-06-09"
        ],
        "alerts": [
          {
            "from": "2021-01-07",
            "to": "2021-05-24",
            "why": "tim"
          },
          {
            "from": "2021-10-12",
            "to": "2022-01-10",
            "why": "tim"
          },
          {
            "from": "2025-01-21",
            "to": "2025-11-17",
            "why": "tim"
          }
        ]
      },
      "2022": {
        "sell": [
          "2025-11-17"
        ],
        "buy": [
          "2026-06-09"
        ],
        "alerts": [
          {
            "from": "2025-01-21",
            "to": "2025-11-17",
            "why": "tim"
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "live": {
      "final_date": "2026-10-06",
      "days": 35,
      "trades": [],
      "source": "ledger",
      "ledger_rows": 36,
      "recomputed_differs": 0,
      "strategy": 0.86,
      "hold": 0.86,
      "max_dd": -0.1387,
      "max_dd_hold": -0.1387
    },
    "batch": {
      "keep_on_alert": 0.6667,
      "position": 1.0,
      "backtest": {
        "start": "2014",
        "strategy": 494.03,
        "hold": 97.9,
        "ratio": 5.05,
        "cagr": 0.62,
        "cagr_hold": 0.4284,
        "max_dd": -0.6247,
        "max_dd_hold": -0.8378,
        "time_in": 0.6513
      },
      "by_start": [
        {
          "start": "2014",
          "strategy": 494.03,
          "hold": 97.9,
          "ratio": 5.05,
          "cagr": 0.62,
          "cagr_hold": 0.4284,
          "max_dd": -0.6247,
          "max_dd_hold": -0.8378,
          "time_in": 0.6513
        },
        {
          "start": "2016",
          "strategy": 351.61,
          "hold": 169.46,
          "ratio": 2.07,
          "cagr": 0.7159,
          "cagr_hold": 0.6043,
          "max_dd": -0.6247,
          "max_dd_hold": -0.8378,
          "time_in": 0.7175
        },
        {
          "start": "2018",
          "strategy": 13.89,
          "hold": 5.47,
          "ratio": 2.54,
          "cagr": 0.3459,
          "cagr_hold": 0.2115,
          "max_dd": -0.8138,
          "max_dd_hold": -0.8138,
          "time_in": 0.7909
        },
        {
          "start": "2020",
          "strategy": 26.08,
          "hold": 10.27,
          "ratio": 2.54,
          "cagr": 0.6088,
          "cagr_hold": 0.4045,
          "max_dd": -0.5429,
          "max_dd_hold": -0.7667,
          "time_in": 0.73
        },
        {
          "start": "2022",
          "strategy": 2.46,
          "hold": 1.55,
          "ratio": 1.59,
          "cagr": 0.2032,
          "cagr_hold": 0.0943,
          "max_dd": -0.6687,
          "max_dd_hold": -0.6687,
          "time_in": 0.8287
        }
      ]
    },
    "early": {
      "rules": {
        "low_days": 650,
        "new_high_within_days": 180
      },
      "defined": "2026-10-15",
      "position": 1.0,
      "armed": false,
      "early_arm_now": false,
      "days_since_low": 133,
      "active_from": "2028-04-10",
      "early_arm_dates": [
        "2020-11-30",
        "2024-08-20"
      ],
      "same_as_main": true,
      "backtest": {
        "start": "2014",
        "strategy": 735.87,
        "hold": 97.9,
        "ratio": 7.52,
        "cagr": 0.671,
        "cagr_hold": 0.4284,
        "max_dd": -0.7432,
        "max_dd_hold": -0.8378,
        "time_in": 0.7262
      },
      "by_start": [
        {
          "start": "2014",
          "strategy": 735.87,
          "hold": 97.9,
          "ratio": 7.52,
          "cagr": 0.671,
          "cagr_hold": 0.4284,
          "max_dd": -0.7432,
          "max_dd_hold": -0.8378,
          "time_in": 0.7262
        },
        {
          "start": "2016",
          "strategy": 552.12,
          "hold": 169.46,
          "ratio": 3.26,
          "cagr": 0.7887,
          "cagr_hold": 0.6043,
          "max_dd": -0.7432,
          "max_dd_hold": -0.8378,
          "time_in": 0.8011
        },
        {
          "start": "2018",
          "strategy": 11.26,
          "hold": 5.47,
          "ratio": 2.06,
          "cagr": 0.3144,
          "cagr_hold": 0.2115,
          "max_dd": -0.8138,
          "max_dd_hold": -0.8138,
          "time_in": 0.8452
        },
        {
          "start": "2020",
          "strategy": 21.14,
          "hold": 10.27,
          "ratio": 2.06,
          "cagr": 0.5603,
          "cagr_hold": 0.4045,
          "max_dd": -0.6566,
          "max_dd_hold": -0.7667,
          "time_in": 0.8001
        },
        {
          "start": "2022",
          "strategy": 2.3,
          "hold": 1.55,
          "ratio": 1.49,
          "cagr": 0.1876,
          "cagr_hold": 0.0943,
          "max_dd": -0.6687,
          "max_dd_hold": -0.6687,
          "time_in": 0.8851
        }
      ],
      "trades": [
        {
          "date": "2014-03-03",
          "action": "sell",
          "why": "st_down",
          "price": 676.51
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-07-13",
          "action": "buy",
          "why": "st_up",
          "price": 292.65
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02-05",
          "action": "sell",
          "why": "st_down",
          "price": 6849.54
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11-20",
          "action": "buy",
          "why": "bsig",
          "price": 4317.53
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05-24",
          "action": "sell",
          "why": "st_down",
          "price": 38630.41
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10-11",
          "action": "buy",
          "why": "st_up",
          "price": 57289.19
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01-10",
          "action": "sell",
          "why": "st_down",
          "price": 41816.95
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06-16",
          "action": "buy",
          "why": "bsig",
          "price": 20310.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11-17",
          "action": "sell",
          "why": "st_down",
          "price": 91911.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-09",
          "action": "buy",
          "why": "bsig",
          "price": 61640.46
        }
      ],
      "live": {
        "final_date": "2026-10-15",
        "days": 26,
        "trades": [],
        "source": "ledger",
        "ledger_rows": 27,
        "recomputed_differs": 0,
        "strategy": 0.9,
        "hold": 0.9,
        "max_dd": -0.1249,
        "max_dd_hold": -0.1249
      }
    },
    "projected_arm": "2029-02-01"
  },
  "categories": {
    "onchain_valuation": {
      "label": "鏈上估值",
      "weight": 0.35,
      "score": 41.2,
      "status": "ok",
      "stale": false,
      "indicators": {
        "mvrv_z": {
          "label": "MVRV Z-score",
          "unit": "",
          "role": "score",
          "description": "市值與實現市值（所有幣最後移動時價格的總和）的差距，以標準差衡量。越高代表整體未實現獲利越大。",
          "value": 0.6877,
          "score": 47.6,
          "percentile": 32.7,
          "as_of": "2026-11-09",
          "stale": false,
          "status": "ok",
          "method": "cycle",
          "bottom_bound": -0.2448,
          "expected_top": 1.7134,
          "past_tops": {
            "2013-12-04": 7.704061973442023,
            "2017-12-16": 9.354234932070232,
            "2021-11-08": 3.5338955722930825,
            "2025-10-06": 2.529864786952901
          }
        },
        "nupl": {
          "label": "NUPL",
          "unit": "",
          "role": "score",
          "description": "淨未實現損益占市值比例。接近 0.75 以上歷來是極度貪婪區。",
          "value": 0.2825,
          "score": 60.6,
          "percentile": 27.6,
          "as_of": "2026-11-09",
          "stale": false,
          "status": "ok",
          "method": "cycle",
          "bottom_bound": -0.0683,
          "expected_top": 0.511,
          "past_tops": {
            "2013-12-04": 0.788053831393491,
            "2017-12-16": 0.7743054077961272,
            "2021-11-08": 0.6496943049336483,
            "2025-10-06": 0.5627737578039096
          }
        },
        "puell": {
          "label": "Puell Multiple",
          "unit": "",
          "role": "score",
          "description": "礦工每日收入 ÷ 365 日均。礦工收入異常高時，往往是價格過熱。",
          "value": 0.7624,
          "score": 0.0,
          "percentile": 19.6,
          "as_of": "2026-11-09",
          "stale": false,
          "status": "ok",
          "method": "percentile",
          "history_days": 5660
        },
        "rp_multiple": {
          "label": "實現價格倍數",
          "unit": "x",
          "role": "score",
          "description": "價格 ÷ 實現價格（市場平均持幣成本）。數學上等於 MVRV。",
          "value": 1.3938,
          "score": 56.7,
          "percentile": 27.6,
          "as_of": "2026-11-09",
          "stale": false,
          "status": "ok",
          "method": "cycle",
          "bottom_bound": 0.8889,
          "expected_top": 1.779,
          "past_tops": {
            "2013-12-04": 4.718179179999999,
            "2017-12-16": 4.43076633,
            "2021-11-08": 2.854649564891,
            "2025-10-06": 2.287145426077863
          }
        }
      },
      "effective_weight": 0.437
    },
    "holder_behavior": {
      "label": "持有者行為",
      "weight": 0.2,
      "score": null,
      "status": "unavailable",
      "stale": false,
      "indicators": {
        "lth_supply_change": {
          "label": "長期持有者供給變化",
          "role": "score",
          "status": "unavailable",
          "reason": "長期持有者供給變化（需 Glassnode / CryptoQuant）"
        },
        "lth_sopr": {
          "label": "LTH-SOPR",
          "role": "score",
          "status": "unavailable",
          "reason": "LTH-SOPR（需 Glassnode / CryptoQuant）"
        },
        "cdd_dormancy": {
          "label": "CDD / Dormancy",
          "role": "score",
          "status": "unavailable",
          "reason": "CDD / Dormancy（需 Glassnode / CryptoQuant）"
        }
      },
      "effective_weight": 0
    },
    "capital_flows": {
      "label": "資金流與機構",
      "weight": 0.2,
      "score": 0.0,
      "status": "ok",
      "stale": false,
      "indicators": {
        "etf_flow_30d": {
          "label": "ETF 30 日累計淨流入",
          "unit": "百萬美元",
          "role": "score",
          "description": "美國現貨 ETF 過去 30 日的淨申購合計。",
          "value": -1609.2564,
          "score": 0.0,
          "percentile": 14.7,
          "as_of": "2026-11-09",
          "stale": false,
          "status": "ok",
          "method": "percentile",
          "history_days": 1005
        },
        "etf_flow_momentum": {
          "label": "ETF 流入動能",
          "unit": "百萬美元",
          "role": "score",
          "description": "最近 30 日淨流入減前 30 日，正值代表流入在加速。",
          "value": -3547.9624,
          "score": 0.0,
          "percentile": 19.7,
          "as_of": "2026-11-09",
          "stale": false,
          "status": "ok",
          "method": "percentile",
          "history_days": 975
        },
        "stable_growth_90d": {
          "label": "穩定幣 90 日增速",
          "unit": "%",
          "role": "score",
          "description": "穩定幣總供給 90 日成長率，代表場內可用的新資金。",
          "value": -2.4571,
          "score": 0.0,
          "percentile": 26.7,
          "as_of": "2026-11-11",
          "stale": false,
          "status": "ok",
          "method": "percentile",
          "history_days": 3180
        },
        "coinbase_premium_7d": {
          "label": "Coinbase 溢價（7 日均）",
          "unit": "%",
          "role": "score",
          "description": "Coinbase 美元價格相對 OKX USDT 價格的溢價，反映美國買盤強度。",
          "value": -0.1428,
          "score": 0.0,
          "percentile": 2.7,
          "as_of": "2026-11-11",
          "stale": false,
          "status": "ok",
          "method": "percentile",
          "history_days": 1536
        }
      },
      "effective_weight": 0.25
    },
    "leverage": {
      "label": "槓桿與衍生品",
      "weight": 0.15,
      "score": 53.3,
      "status": "ok",
      "stale": false,
      "indicators": {
        "funding_7d_ann": {
          "label": "資金費率 7 日均（年化）",
          "unit": "%",
          "role": "score",
          "description": "永續合約多方付給空方的費率。越高代表槓桿做多越擁擠。",
          "value": 6.6558,
          "score": 35.1,
          "percentile": 57.8,
          "as_of": "2026-11-11",
          "stale": false,
          "status": "ok",
          "method": "percentile",
          "history_days": 2616
        },
        "oi_to_mcap": {
          "label": "未平倉量 / 市值",
          "unit": "%",
          "role": "score",
          "description": "全市場 BTC 合約未平倉量占市值比例，代表槓桿規模。",
          "value": 0.2462,
          "score": 96.5,
          "percentile": 97.7,
          "as_of": "2026-11-10",
          "stale": false,
          "status": "ok",
          "method": "percentile",
          "history_days": 219
        },
        "basis_ann": {
          "label": "期現基差（年化）",
          "unit": "%",
          "role": "score",
          "description": "季度期貨相對現貨的年化溢價。越高代表期貨買方越願意付溢價。",
          "value": 5.6786,
          "score": 28.3,
          "percentile": 53.4,
          "as_of": "2026-11-11",
          "stale": false,
          "status": "ok",
          "method": "percentile",
          "history_days": 2108
        }
      },
      "effective_weight": 0.187
    },
    "sentiment_cycle": {
      "label": "情緒",
      "weight": 0.1,
      "score": 0.0,
      "status": "partial",
      "stale": false,
      "indicators": {
        "fear_greed_7d": {
          "label": "恐懼貪婪指數（7 日均）",
          "unit": "",
          "role": "score",
          "description": "alternative.me 綜合波動、成交量、社群與搜尋的情緒指數（0–100）。",
          "value": 31.5714,
          "score": 0.0,
          "percentile": 25.6,
          "as_of": "2026-11-11",
          "stale": false,
          "status": "ok",
          "method": "percentile",
          "history_days": 3197
        },
        "google_trends": {
          "label": "Google Trends「bitcoin」",
          "role": "score",
          "status": "unavailable",
          "reason": "Google Trends「bitcoin」（無官方免費 API，第一版跳過）"
        }
      },
      "effective_weight": 0.125
    }
  },
  "cycle_tops": [
    "2013-12-04",
    "2017-12-16",
    "2021-11-08",
    "2025-10-06"
  ],
  "cycle_bottoms": [
    "2015-01-14",
    "2018-12-15",
    "2022-11-09"
  ],
  "sources": {
    "coinmetrics": {
      "fetched": true,
      "last_date": "2026-11-10",
      "stale": false,
      "available": true,
      "errors": []
    },
    "stablecoins": {
      "fetched": true,
      "last_date": "2026-11-10",
      "stale": false,
      "available": true,
      "errors": []
    },
    "fear_greed": {
      "fetched": true,
      "last_date": "2026-11-11",
      "stale": false,
      "available": true,
      "errors": []
    },
    "funding": {
      "fetched": true,
      "last_date": "2026-11-11",
      "stale": false,
      "available": true,
      "errors": []
    },
    "open_interest": {
      "fetched": true,
      "last_date": "2026-11-10",
      "stale": false,
      "available": true,
      "errors": []
    },
    "basis": {
      "fetched": true,
      "last_date": "2026-11-11",
      "stale": false,
      "available": true,
      "errors": []
    },
    "coinbase_premium": {
      "fetched": true,
      "last_date": "2026-11-11",
      "stale": false,
      "available": true,
      "errors": []
    },
    "etf": {
      "fetched": true,
      "last_date": "2026-11-09",
      "stale": false,
      "available": true,
      "errors": []
    },
    "ohlc": {
      "fetched": true,
      "last_date": "2026-11-11",
      "stale": false,
      "available": true,
      "errors": []
    }
  },
  "rules": {
    "top_signal": "頂部訊號 = 熱度（7 日均）× 時機 ÷ 100",
    "signal_level": "none < 50 ≤ window（頂部窗口）< 70 ≤ alert（高度警戒）",
    "zone": "頂部訊號 ≥ 50 時為 top_zone；否則依熱度：cold < 40 ≤ warm < 65 ≤ hot",
    "composite_score": "與 heat_score 相同（保留舊欄位名稱）",
    "hot_categories": "類別分數 ≥ 80 的類別數",
    "bottom_signal": "底部訊號 = 冷度（7 日均）× 底部時機 ÷ 100",
    "bottom_level": "none < 50 ≤ zone（底部區）< 70 ≤ strong（強烈底部）"
  },
  "disclaimer": "僅供參考，不構成投資建議。",
  "scenarios": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-10",
    "price": 73661.0,
    "top_date": "2029-07-30",
    "window": {
      "from": "2029-03-29",
      "to": "2029-12-01"
    },
    "tops": {
      "conservative": 110202.0,
      "base": 182827.0,
      "optimistic": 323618.0
    },
    "inputs": {
      "top_over_prior_low": [
        111.82,
        21.21,
        7.92
      ],
      "next_top_over_low": 1.88,
      "cycle_low": 58525.08,
      "top_mvrv": [
        4.72,
        4.43,
        2.85,
        2.29
      ],
      "next_top_mvrv": 1.78,
      "realized_price": 53926.0,
      "realized_growth": 0.2674,
      "powerlaw_slope": 5.635,
      "top_over_prior_top": [
        17.31,
        3.44,
        1.85
      ],
      "ratio_method_top": 63869.0,
      "bull_pullbacks": [
        {
          "from": "2017-06-11",
          "to": "2017-07-16",
          "dd": -0.358
        },
        {
          "from": "2019-06-26",
          "to": "2020-03-12",
          "dd": -0.614
        },
        {
          "from": "2024-12-17",
          "to": "2025-04-08",
          "dd": -0.28
        }
      ]
    },
    "dates": [
      "2026-11-10",
      "2026-11-17",
      "2026-11-24",
      "2026-12-01",
      "2026-12-08",
      "2026-12-15",
      "2026-12-22",
      "2026-12-29",
      "2027-01-05",
      "2027-01-12",
      "2027-01-19",
      "2027-01-26",
      "2027-02-02",
      "2027-02-09",
      "2027-02-16",
      "2027-02-23",
      "2027-03-02",
      "2027-03-09",
      "2027-03-16",
      "2027-03-23",
      "2027-03-30",
      "2027-04-06",
      "2027-04-13",
      "2027-04-20",
      "2027-04-27",
      "2027-05-04",
      "2027-05-11",
      "2027-05-18",
      "2027-05-25",
      "2027-06-01",
      "2027-06-08",
      "2027-06-15",
      "2027-06-22",
      "2027-06-29",
      "2027-07-06",
      "2027-07-13",
      "2027-07-20",
      "2027-07-27",
      "2027-08-03",
      "2027-08-10",
      "2027-08-17",
      "2027-08-24",
      "2027-08-31",
      "2027-09-07",
      "2027-09-14",
      "2027-09-21",
      "2027-09-28",
      "2027-10-05",
      "2027-10-12",
      "2027-10-19",
      "2027-10-26",
      "2027-11-02",
      "2027-11-09",
      "2027-11-16",
      "2027-11-23",
      "2027-11-30",
      "2027-12-07",
      "2027-12-14",
      "2027-12-21",
      "2027-12-28",
      "2028-01-04",
      "2028-01-11",
      "2028-01-18",
      "2028-01-25",
      "2028-02-01",
      "2028-02-08",
      "2028-02-15",
      "2028-02-22",
      "2028-02-29",
      "2028-03-07",
      "2028-03-14",
      "2028-03-21",
      "2028-03-28",
      "2028-04-04",
      "2028-04-11",
      "2028-04-18",
      "2028-04-25",
      "2028-05-02",
      "2028-05-09",
      "2028-05-16",
      "2028-05-23",
      "2028-05-30",
      "2028-06-06",
      "2028-06-13",
      "2028-06-20",
      "2028-06-27",
      "2028-07-04",
      "2028-07-11",
      "2028-07-18",
      "2028-07-25",
      "2028-08-01",
      "2028-08-08",
      "2028-08-15",
      "2028-08-22",
      "2028-08-29",
      "2028-09-05",
      "2028-09-12",
      "2028-09-19",
      "2028-09-26",
      "2028-10-03",
      "2028-10-10",
      "2028-10-17",
      "2028-10-24",
      "2028-10-31",
      "2028-11-07",
      "2028-11-14",
      "2028-11-21",
      "2028-11-28",
      "2028-12-05",
      "2028-12-12",
      "2028-12-19",
      "2028-12-26",
      "2029-01-02",
      "2029-01-09",
      "2029-01-16",
      "2029-01-23",
      "2029-01-30",
      "2029-02-06",
      "2029-02-13",
      "2029-02-20",
      "2029-02-27",
      "2029-03-06",
      "2029-03-13",
      "2029-03-20",
      "2029-03-27",
      "2029-04-03",
      "2029-04-10",
      "2029-04-17",
      "2029-04-24",
      "2029-05-01",
      "2029-05-08",
      "2029-05-15",
      "2029-05-22",
      "2029-05-29",
      "2029-06-05",
      "2029-06-12",
      "2029-06-19",
      "2029-06-26",
      "2029-07-03",
      "2029-07-10",
      "2029-07-17",
      "2029-07-24",
      "2029-07-30"
    ],
    "paths": {
      "conservative": [
        73661.0,
        73948.0,
        74223.0,
        74503.0,
        74776.0,
        75033.0,
        75266.0,
        75486.0,
        75717.0,
        75946.0,
        76171.0,
        76362.0,
        76527.0,
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